Climate Change and Energy

The earth's atmosphere is made up of a delicately balanced blanket of gases, which trap enough heat to sustain life. However, by burning fossil fuels and pumping billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide (C02) and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, humans are upsetting this balance.

These gases are trapping more and more heat, warming the globe and throwing our climate into chaos.

While many greenhouse gases occur naturally, the rate that we humans are adding them to the atmosphere is far from natural. It is estimated that concentrations of CO2 are 30 percent higher than before the industrial revolution, when the wide scale burning of fossil fuels started.

Scientists warn we have 10 years to act to avoid the worst climate impacts. But we still have time to cut our greenhouse pollution by using renewable energy, phasing out fossil fuels and increasing energy efficiency and conservation.

Effects of climate change

Scientists warn of an ecological and human catastrophe if global warming is not curbed. Extreme weather events like hurricanes, droughts and floods are on the rise as a result of climate change.

The insurance industry warns that the global cost from such events will hit $380 billion every year, from 2014.

Sea level rise, extreme weather events and agricultural loses could create up to 150 million climate refugees by the middle of this century.

In Europe the last decade was the hottest for 500 years. 35,000 people died in the 2003 European heatwave which scientists have directly linked to climate change.

The Arctic ice cap and the Siberian permafrost are melting dramatically, creating what scientists warn, could be irreversible damage, sparking even more warming and melting.

Closer to home, the five hottest New Zealand winters on record have all occurred since 1998 and the country is expected to warm by up to 2.8 degrees this century.

There is much talk of what it will cost to tackle climate change and cut our greenhouse gas emissions. But what will it cost if we fail to act?

Climate change in New Zealand threatens to play havoc with our agricultural economy. Severe droughts will increase by two to four fold in the east of the country, according to the National Institute of Water Research. The drought of the late 90's cost our economy $1 billion, and the recent flooding and storms of 2004 cost over $400 million highlighting just how vulnerable we are to changes in the climate.

Up to a third of the South Island 's 3,000 glaciers could disappear, impacting our important tourism sector. New diseases like malaria could become viable here within 10 years threatening human health. More rainfall (particularly in the west) and floods compounded by sea level rise, could mean insurance companies no longer insure homes against flooding, as is the case in many parts of the UK.

The loss of coral reefs, the Amazon rainforest and the extinction of up to a quarter of all land and plant and animal species will be some of the dire consequences faced if we do not get climate change under control. Polar bears maybe the first animal to become extinct due to climate change as the Arctic ice they live on is disappearing.

The greatest dangers - those that would result in global catastrophe - are posed by large scale and irreversible impacts, such as:

• Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melting. Unless emissions are reduced, warming in the next 5 decades could be large enough to trigger meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet;
• the Gulf Stream slowing or shutting down; and
• massive releases of greenhouse gases from melting permafrost and dying forests.

At all scales of climate change, developing countries will suffer the most. More people will be harmed than benefited, even for small amounts of warming.

Economic losses in the billions

There is much talk of what it will cost to tackle climate change and cut our greenhouse gas emissions. But what will it cost if we fail to act?

• Costs of natural disasters, aggravated by global warming, could double to $150 billion euros ($288 billion NZD) a year in 10 years, according to the world's second-largest reinsurer, Swiss Re. This would land insurers with $30-40 billion euros ($57 - $77 billion NZD) in claims - the equivalent of a World Trade Centre attack each year.
• In New Zealand , the flooding and storms of 2004 cost over $400 million.
• The 1997-99 Canterbury drought cost $230 million at the farm gate alone. Overall it cost the New Zealand economy $618 million or 0.9% in GDP.
• The Australian drought of 2002/03 resulted in a 30 per cent reduction in agricultural output, a net effect of a 1.6 per cent drop in GDP and 70,000 jobs.

"There is a danger that human intervention will accelerate and intensify natural climate changes to such a point that it will become impossible to adapt our socio-economic systems in time," stated the global insurance giant Swiss Re in their March 2004 report. 

Rising temperatures

• New Zealand experienced one of the hottest and driest winter on record in 2005. New Zealand is expected to warm by up to 2.8 degrees in the next century, with most warming in the north.
• In Europe the last decade was the hottest in 500 years.
• Near-record temperatures have hit Canada , the US , Hawaii , China , Russia and Alaska .
• Over 1500 people died in India as temperatures topped 49C (120F).
  

Extreme weather and climate chaos

On of the first signs of climate change is an increase in the number and intensity of extreme weather events such as storms, flooding and droughts:

• The world is experiencing record numbers of extreme weather events, such as droughts and tornadoes according to the World Meteorological Association, a specialized climate science agency of the United Nations, and climate change is to blame.
• The 562 tornadoes which hit the United States in May 2003 was a record - far higher than the previous monthly peak of 399 in June 1992.

• New Zealand was ravaged by some of the worst storms and flooding in years, in February 2004. Scientists tell us we can expect more.
• NIWA predicts that the east of New Zealand will get drier and the west will get wetter.
• A NIWA report, Changes in Drought Risk with Climate Change, states that drought risk is expected to increase in already drought prone regions. The report projects a two to four fold increases in the incidence of severe drought across many eastern parts of New Zealand by the 2080s.

Plants and wildlife threatened

• 1 million species are predicted to go extinct due to global warming, most by 2050. This is a quarter of all land plant and animal species.
• 300 alpine plant species in New Zealand are threatened by extinction due to global warming
• Polar bears may disappear. The Arctic ice is already 40% thinner than in the 1960’s. Arctic summers are getting five days longer every decade. Polar bears rely on the ice for hunting seals and they may lose their habitat within 100 years. Half of the alpine glaciers and large permafrost areas could disappear by the end of the 21 st Century. Wetlands and tundra could vanish.
• Coral reefs everywhere would experience bleaching and mangroves damaged.
• In twenty years the Amazon rainforest could begin to dry out. This rainforest – rich in biodiversity – depends on its ability to recycle rain for survival. With trees being cut, and climate change driving up the temperatures, a lack of moisture could cause the forest’s total collapse.

Melting glaciers, melting ice caps and sea level rise

New Zealand glaciers:

New Zealand could lose one third of the South Island ’s 3,000 glaciers within just a few decades if temperature rise by 1.5 - 4.5 ° C. The Franz Joseph glacier has retreated 1500 metres since scientific observations began in 1860. Franz Joseph, Fox and other glaciers are in an overall pattern of retreat (despite some fluctuations and short term advances).

Siberia melting:

The permafrost of western Siberia is rapidly melting which could unleash billions of tonnes of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. Scientists describe an "ecological landslide that is probably irreversible and is undoubtedly connected to climatic warming". The entire western Siberian sub-Arctic region has begun to melt, all within the last three or four years.

Arctic :

Scientists are extremely concerned about the warming in the Arctic which is causing massive ice cap melting. They warn that the record loss of sea ice in the 2005 Arctic summer shows the northern hemisphere may have crossed a critical threshold beyond which the climate may never recover.

They fear that the Arctic has now entered an irreversible phase of warming which will accelerate the loss of the polar sea ice. As the darker coloured, newly exposed land revealed as the ice melts, warms up quickly, causing even more ice to melt creating a vicious cycle of warming and melting. The Arctic has helped to keep the climate stable for thousands of years.

Antarctic:

Antarctic glaciers are rapidly melting. 87% of 244 glaciers studied on the Antarctic Peninsula have retreated over the last 50 years according to British Antarctic Survey and U.S. Geological Survey and worryingly they found that average retreat rates have accelerated.

Sea level rise:

Scientists warn sea levels could rise by almost a metre this century, spelling disaster for low lying countries like Tuvalu and Bangladesh.

Disease will spread

By 2080, 290 million people will be at risk from Malaria, say UN scientists. Infectious diseases will expand their range poleward and to higher elevations. Dengue fever and cholera will also increase.

New diseases like dengue fever may become viable in New Zealand . Pests, both plants and animals, will spread further, and cause more severe damage to our vital agricultural sector.

Food and water will be scarce

Hunger and thirst will be the ultimate result of climate change. Australian research shows how less rain would cut production with knock-on effects on food. Just 15% less grass could give a 12% drop in the weight of beef cattle; 30% drop in milk from dairy cows, and new pests would spread to fruit-growing areas.

By 2025, say UN scientists, droughts will mean that five billion – or two out of three people – will lack sufficient water and millions more will starve. The 2003 droughts and heatwaves across Europe , for example, meant that some countries had to import wheat rather than export, which caused a rise in the cost of a loaf of bread.

Melting glaciers due to global warming is also starting to cause problems for people who depend on the glaciers for their fresh water supply. This may cause enormous problems in the future given that a third of the world's population – 2 billion people – rely on rivers fed by Himalayan glaciers alone.

Social upheaval

The impacts of climate change reach far beyond environmental, but are likely to cause massive economic and social upheaval.

Extreme weather events, sea level rise, global drops in agricultural production and the spread of desert areas from climate change, will push people out of their traditional homelands, creating a wave of climate refugees.

• There could be 150 million climate refugees by 2050, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
• Natural catastrophes caused more deaths in 2003 than in the last two decades, says top re-insurer Munich Re. More than 50,000 people were killed worldwide, up from 11,000 the previous year.

Look who's talking

The catastrophic predictions of climate change are not predicted by a handful of environmentalists, but by world-renowned scientists, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In the IPCC’s latest report, the third governmental assessment released in 2001, the anticipated increase in average global temperature over the next 100 years is between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius. This is up on the increase of 1 to 3.5 degrees Celsius predicted in the Panel's second assessment released in 1995.

Not only is climate change happening faster than previously predicted, but it may happen even faster than the latest predictions. Dying forests, more fires and warming soils could release huge additional amounts of carbon, substantially accelerating warming.

The IPCC's third assessment states that "The projected rate of warming is much larger than the observed changes during the 20th century and is very likely without precedent during the last 10,000 years." The difference between the present average global temperature and the last ice age was only five degrees Celsius.

Never before has humanity had to grapple with such an immense environmental crisis. If we do not take action to stop global warming immediately, the damage will be irreversible.

 References

IPCC Climate Change 2001: Working Group II: Chapter 12, Australia and New Zealand . Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability 12.5.6. Drought

“Extinction risk from climate change”, Nature, 427 , 145 - 148 ( 08 Jan 2004 ), Chris D. Thomas etal.

IPCC Climate Change 2001: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Chapter 12, Australia and New Zealand Executive Summary